(23-07-2025) Peru’s mining exports are expected to exceed US$60 billion this year, driven by sustained growth in international prices for gold, silver, and copper, according to economist Elmer Cuba, partner at Macroconsult, a Peruvian consultancy specializing in economics, investment banking, and asset management.
This forecast was presented during the Jueves Minero (Mining Thursday) conference held on July 17, organized weekly by the Peruvian Institute of Mining Engineers (IIMP).
“We are in an extraordinary moment. When I was a student, Peru exported only US$3 billion. Today, we are talking about 20 times that amount,” he said.
The current international environment is marked by a high metals price cycle, which continues despite China’s economic slowdown.
“Global copper demand has decoupled from China. What we’re seeing is a structural pressure tied to the global energy transition, which requires more copper per unit of GDP,” he explained.
However, Peru is not fully capitalizing on this boom due to two key issues:
- Excessive bureaucracy (“tramitomanía”) that stalls and discourages new investments.
- The rapid rise of illegal mining, especially gold mining. Based on his estimates, half of Peru’s gold exports currently originate from informal sources, leading to major environmental, fiscal, and governance challenges.
“Informal gold could account for up to US$10 billion in exports this year, but without generating taxes or local development. This reflects an institutional failure,” he warned.
He emphasized that mining contributes 40% of corporate income tax revenues and over 60% of national exports, making it the cornerstone of Peru’s economy. Nevertheless, he noted that other mining nations are streamlining their regulatory processes to attract investment.
“Peru is imposing roadblocks on itself… We should have the best mining procedures in the world, like we do in agro-exports or fishing. But we’re doing exactly the opposite.”
Cuba concluded by highlighting that, if current conditions persist, Peru will reach a record in copper production this year, surpassing its previous peak in 2015. Operations such as Antamina, Cerro Verde, Southern Copper, and Las Bambas (which has the greatest potential for growth in coming years) are leading this surge.
A panel followed the presentation, featuring Enrique Castillo (political analyst and columnist for Gestión), Ángela Grossheim (Executive Director of the National Society of Mining, Oil, and Energy), and Jorge Soto Yen (President of the Mining Engineering Chapter – Lima Council, College of Engineers of Peru). The session was moderated by Gustavo de Vinatea, General Manager of IIMP.